In 2022 NFL draft, almost 20% of the players taken came from small schools. This number is not including the kids that transferred to bigger schools during their college career. Just in the first 2 rounds of the 2022 draft that number jumps to just under 25% of the draft started out at smaller schools. I would guess as one goes down the draft board that number would increase, and it wouldn't surprise me if somewhere around 30% started at small schools. In fact, if we go back before transfers was a thing, the NFL drafts would have a substantial number of kids taken from small schools.
This is going to really hurt Jr. Colleges and smaller schools' competitiveness long term. Kids don't have to go the JUCO route any longer and small schools are going to keep their best players very long, which is going to make them less competitive. However, it is going to really change how top tier teams fill in their rosters. The hit rate on 4- and 5-Star kids floats traditionally around 50% nationally, but the ones that are hits in college are taken in top rounds of NFL Draft at a higher percentage than non 4 and 5-Star players. It is going to be interesting to see what the hit rate is on transfer portal players. This is going to swing, because in some cases players are being used for depth, but in a lot of instances, we are taking players that would get drafted elsewhere traditionally at smaller schools. Oh, I am not counting players that come from big schools and transfer in, like Nic Scourton. It seems like the success rate should be a lot higher with portal transfers than HS players. By the time they get here, most have matured and have a goal in mind (NFL or degree). They are not adjusting to life in college, and it is doubtful that the troubled kids are making it to Power 5 teams as much.
Anyway, if you are wondering what Vegas thinks of the Aggies and their 2024 portal additions, you don't have to look very far. The Aggie odds to win the National Championship are ranked in the top 12 schools in the country. So, our odds to make the playoffs has to be ranked pretty well too. This has to be because of the combination of talent we already had on campus and the portal additions. I don't think the new freshman class would have this kind of impact. So, those doubting that with some decent coaching and schemes, we can be competitive next year, think again!
2025 National Championship Odds
This is going to really hurt Jr. Colleges and smaller schools' competitiveness long term. Kids don't have to go the JUCO route any longer and small schools are going to keep their best players very long, which is going to make them less competitive. However, it is going to really change how top tier teams fill in their rosters. The hit rate on 4- and 5-Star kids floats traditionally around 50% nationally, but the ones that are hits in college are taken in top rounds of NFL Draft at a higher percentage than non 4 and 5-Star players. It is going to be interesting to see what the hit rate is on transfer portal players. This is going to swing, because in some cases players are being used for depth, but in a lot of instances, we are taking players that would get drafted elsewhere traditionally at smaller schools. Oh, I am not counting players that come from big schools and transfer in, like Nic Scourton. It seems like the success rate should be a lot higher with portal transfers than HS players. By the time they get here, most have matured and have a goal in mind (NFL or degree). They are not adjusting to life in college, and it is doubtful that the troubled kids are making it to Power 5 teams as much.
Anyway, if you are wondering what Vegas thinks of the Aggies and their 2024 portal additions, you don't have to look very far. The Aggie odds to win the National Championship are ranked in the top 12 schools in the country. So, our odds to make the playoffs has to be ranked pretty well too. This has to be because of the combination of talent we already had on campus and the portal additions. I don't think the new freshman class would have this kind of impact. So, those doubting that with some decent coaching and schemes, we can be competitive next year, think again!
2025 National Championship Odds
