Is Trump going to win Texas?

[Beer Donkey]

Has the long feared Texas conversion to blue arrived? It's been since Jimmy Carter that Texas was blue. But polls on 538 today show Biden with a small lead. Think what I saw was 48 - 46.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/

I thought Trump had Texas on lock down.

Beto apparently told the DNC Biden needs to get to Texas. Texas is Biden's to lose. How can this be Ags?

He's so smug and good looking. How dare he.

If Biden wins Texas, where is everyone moving?

 

[dad_in_tx]

Ain’t gonna happen.

 

[CheekySchneider]

I don’t see it.

I do think Texas will show bluer than the last Presidential election. But to side with Biden over Trump, I wouldn’t put up a side bet worth very much.

I heard the 3 counties with the most votes by percentage of registered voters are Denton, Parker, and Wise which aren’t the most populated in comparison to nearby Tarrant, Dallas, and Collin counties but you can comfortably guarantee will be red counties.

 

[CheekySchneider]

Also I would think early voting would mostly occur in Texas’s most dense areas where you’ll tend to have bluer votes. Election Day voting in less populated areas where voters never expected a long line and didn’t early vote will likely be mostly red.

Even though Trump doesn’t like Mail-in voting, Mail-in voting tends to favor red. Especially since many mail-ins are from the elderly.

 

[dad_in_tx]

Also I would think early voting would mostly occur in Texas’s most dense areas where you’ll tend to have bluer votes. Election Day voting in less populated areas where voters never expected a long line and didn’t early vote will likely be mostly red.

Even though Trump doesn’t like Mail-in voting, Mail-in voting tends to favor red. Especially since many mail-ins are from the elderly.

According to RPT the early vote is going very strong the favor of Republican this year. I can only hope it’s true.

 

[bcg_2006]

I think it will look very competitive, but Texas will not go blue this presidential election.

2020: ?
2016: 43.2% (D) -- 52.2% (R)
2012: 41.4% (D) -- 57.2% (R)
2008: 43.4% (D) -- 55.5% (R)
2004: 38.2 % (D) -- 61.1% (R)
2000: 38.0% (D) -- 59.3% (R)

 

[wick]

Every election cycle the dems are going to win Texas. This election will be another swing and a miss for them except in Austin, Dallas, Houston, and SA

 

[4cag]

I think a lot of dems will walk away.

 

[Beer Donkey]

Every election cycle the dems are going to win Texas. This election will be another swing and a miss for them except in Austin, Dallas, Houston, and SA

OK. I don't closely follow Texas politics. But I don't recall polling that showed Hillary ahead of Trump in 2016. And I don't recall a democrat nearly winning a senate seat like Beto in 2018. Things seem to be tightening, but I could be wrong.

 

[BDB99]

Beto is a dork with Herpes.

 

[bcg_2006]

OK. I don't closely follow Texas politics. But I don't recall polling that showed Hillary ahead of Trump in 2016. And I don't recall a democrat nearly winning a senate seat like Beto in 2018. Things seem to be tightening, but I could be wrong.

You're right. Hillary was never ahead of Trump in Texas polling in '16. That info is easily available for view on RCP.

Cruz vs Beto was the closest race in 40 years.

Things are tightening.

 

[BDB99]

If Biden wins we know why

WATCH: Biden brags about ‘extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization’ created by Democrats

Video shows Biden bragging about Democrats’ “most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization.”

thepostmillennial.com

 

[bcg_2006]

If Biden wins we know why

WATCH: Biden brags about ‘extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization’ created by Democrats

Video shows Biden bragging about Democrats’ “most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization.”

thepostmillennial.com

Really?

 

[BDB99]

Really?

Are you surprised?

 

[Big_Chin]

Texas could stand to go a little more purple and legalize weed and shrooms, improve statewide healthcare options, and continue developing tech industries

 

[BDB99]

Texas could stand to go a little more purple and legalize weed and shrooms, improve statewide healthcare options, and continue developing tech industries

Yeah because those things are so important to a society and we are obviously stifling tech development. I have no problem finding weed and do wish it was legal but going communist to achieve that is insane

 

[bcg_2006]

Yeah because those things are so important to a society and we are obviously stifling tech development. I have no problem finding weed and do wish it was legal but going communist to achieve that is insane

No one is going commie to legalize weed. The Republican Party just has to quit caring so hard about keeping it illegal and locking people up for it.

 

[BDB99]

No one is going commie to legalize weed. The Republican Party just has to quit caring so hard about keeping it illegal and locking people up for it.

I can agree but it’s not worth having the current democrat party in charge. They want full commie socialism and want to kill the bill of rights. Weed is not worth gun confiscation

 

[Big_Chin]

Yeah because those things are so important to a society and we are obviously stifling tech development. I have no problem finding weed and do wish it was legal but going communist to achieve that is insane

you don’t need to go communist, just make a law stating weed is now legal for recreational use. it’s not hard, a very easy and popular decision for anyone to make that costs nothing.

republicans would be smart to start hitting these easy singles and taking away democratic talking points. call it the evolution of the GOP or whatever but it’s a fact that younger generations place value in these social changes, so either adapt or die in your nursing home.

 

[KSig44]

Simple question, do you see Biden or Harris campaigning here? No, so that means it's easily in the column of one of the parties and based on history it's probably republican.

 

[BDB99]

you don’t need to go communist, just make a law stating weed is now legal for recreational use. it’s not hard, a very easy and popular decision for anyone to make that costs nothing.

republicans would be smart to start hitting these easy singles and taking away democratic talking points. call it the evolution of the GOP or whatever but it’s a fact that younger generations place value in these social changes, so either adapt or die in your nursing home.

I agree. I think it’s a huge missed opportunity and would likely cement Republican rule for a decade. That being said it’s not the issue I’m going to be worried about at this point. Democrats are hell bent on taking this country down a few pegs on the global scale. The new green deal alone would crush any future for generations of Texans. If not every developed nation on earth would do it. They can’t because it has to involve fleecing our middle classes wealth to money to everyone else globally. It’s a global welfare scheme.
Decriminalize, tax appropriately and move on but it seems that’s too much at this point for republicans all though I do think many more are coming around faster than we really know.
Bottom line for me is I’m not going to look my kid in the eye and say I was part of ruining your future so people could smoke weed. Socialism will kill the American dream that is very much alive and well despite what the media is telling you

 

[Big_Chin]

I agree. I think it’s a huge missed opportunity and would likely cement Republican rule for a decade. That being said it’s not the issue I’m going to be worried about at this point. Democrats are hell bent on taking this country down a few pegs on the global scale. The new green deal alone would crush any future for generations of Texans. If not every developed nation on earth would do it. They can’t because it has to involve fleecing our middle classes wealth to money to everyone else globally. It’s a global welfare scheme.
Decriminalize, tax appropriately and move on but it seems that’s too much at this point for republicans all though I do think many more are coming around faster than we really know.
Bottom line for me is I’m not going to look my kid in the eye and say I was part of ruining your future so people could smoke weed. Socialism will kill the American dream that is very much alive and well despite what the media is telling you

it’s an easy target, and removes an arrow from their quiver. nobody is advocating for whole hog leftist idealism, but this is something the younger voting bloc likes and will continue pushing for enmasse.

either the GOP can lead the way on it, or the left can along with everything else they want. take it away as a talking point, and there’s not much left in the center they can broach without moving backtowards the center entirely. this furthers the rift between progressives and classical liberals, which is what you want if you’re Republicans. you have more in common with a classical liberal, bridge that gap and force the left/right extremes further away.

 

[BeefmanAg]

Yes. Trump will win Texas - and win fairly easily.

If the reds or the blues thought it was actually in play, they’d be campaigning here.

 

[BDB99]

it’s an easy target, and removes an arrow from their quiver. nobody is advocating for whole hog leftist idealism, but this is something the younger voting bloc likes and will continue pushing for enmasse.

either the GOP can lead the way on it, or the left can along with everything else they want. take it away as a talking point, and there’s not much left in the center they can broach without moving backtowards the center entirely. this furthers the rift between progressives and classical liberals, which is what you want if you’re Republicans. you have more in common with a classical liberal, bridge that gap and force the left/right extremes further away.

Completely agree

 

[travster23]

Simple question, do you see Biden or Harris campaigning here? No, so that means it's easily in the column of one of the parties and based on history it's probably republican.

Harris is campaigning in Texas:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/25/kamala-harris-texas-campaign/

 

[travster23]

Yes. Trump will win Texas - and win fairly easily.

If the reds or the blues thought it was actually in play, they’d be campaigning here.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/25/kamala-harris-texas-campaign/

 

[QuickDrawMcGraw77]

Harris is campaigning in Texas:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/25/kamala-harris-texas-campaign/

Joe is in his basement. Can't come out to campaign but thinks he can govern the country.

 

[Rooster77]

very few democratic events in Texas as they have their ballot harvesting mechanisms in high-speed operating modes.

 

[oldag1980]

I think I saw where Jill Biden was in either in Dallas or Austin for a rally a week or two ago. Joe couldn't find his way out of the basement for that event. Hmmmmm..........

 

[BeefmanAg]

One stop in the valley for a VP candidate does not a campaign make.

 

[KSig44]

Harris is campaigning in Texas:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/25/kamala-harris-texas-campaign/

Those 13 people that show will not be very impressed by her.

 

[IDRILL4GASOIL]

Biden is not going to win Texas. Bank on it.

 

[superag1000]

One stop in the valley for a VP candidate does not a campaign make.

I live down in the Texas RGV which is always blue but the support I see for Trump this year is nothing like I have ever seen for a Republican presidential candidate. Trump only got around 29% of the vote in Hidalgo county in 2016 but I could see him getting in the low 40s% this time around. I am looking at this objectively and it is crazy how much energy there is for Trump. I see it everywhere I go in Hidalgo county. I am pretty sure Hidalgo county will vote blue but the percentage will be much lower than 2016. There are a lot more Hispanic people that are supporting Trump this time around.

 

[BeefmanAg]

I live down in the Texas RGV which is always blue but the support I see for Trump this year is nothing like I have ever seen for a Republican presidential candidate. Trump only got around 29% of the vote in Hidalgo county in 2016 but I could see him getting in the low 40s% this time around. I am looking at this objectively and it is crazy how much energy there is for Trump. I see it everywhere I go in Hidalgo county. I am pretty sure Hidalgo county will vote blue but the percentage will be much lower than 2016. There are a lot more Hispanic people that are supporting Trump this time around.

Please don’t tell Travster or Aggie98. I think they might commit hara-kiri.

 

[KSig44]

Just keep this in mind. As you see the early returns you see them by party affiliation. What you are registered as. We have heard of increased support of minorities and you have the oil and gas industry voters as well. I highly doubt these people went and changed their voters card to show republican prior to voting so if there is a swing to Trump from those groups you won't see it in the early numbers which they are only looking at by what you are registered as. The numbers are tight in a lot of swing states, but I bet they may not be as close aas they are seeing because of the Trump democrats.

 

[spencer2]

Just keep this in mind. As you see the early returns you see them by party affiliation. What you are registered as. We have heard of increased support of minorities and you have the oil and gas industry voters as well. I highly doubt these people went and changed their voters card to show republican prior to voting so if there is a swing to Trump from those groups you won't see it in the early numbers which they are only looking at by what you are registered as. The numbers are tight in a lot of swing states, but I bet they may not be as close aas they are seeing because of the Trump democrats.

You are correct😉

 

[KSig44]

I watch this guy, right leaning but his analysis is pretty good. His thoughts today on Texas

 

[ITS BK]

Only one thing will bring this country together as Trump said in his closing remarks “Success” !!
When you have full employment to the extent that there are more jobs than workers, salaries of the workers rise faster than those of upper management as they did just 8 months ago!

People have seen and experienced that phenomenon and want to make it happen again.

 

[KSig44]

Only one thing will bring this country together as Trump said in his closing remarks “Success” !!
When you have full employment to the extent that there are more jobs than workers, salaries of the workers rise faster than those of upper management as they did just 8 months ago!

People have seen and experienced that phenomenon and want to make it happen again.

And this is 100% right. WHere I work we have 3 production facilities. One is across from a Amazon shipping hub, another is in a state with decreasing unemployment due to opening back up. In both situations we have had to increase the hourly wage to get people interested and we are right around $15 minimum wage in both places. It didn't take the government dictating this it happened naturally due to the demands of the labor force in a thriving economic area. Supply and demand, Labor demands are high lowering the supply of labor you have to do things to be competitive...like raise wages to attract talent.

 

[IDRILL4GASOIL]

And this is 100% right. WHere I work we have 3 production facilities. One is across from a Amazon shipping hub, another is in a state with decreasing unemployment due to opening back up. In both situations we have had to increase the hourly wage to get people interested and we are right around $15 minimum wage in both places. It didn't take the government dictating this it happened naturally due to the demands of the labor force in a thriving economic area. Supply and demand, Labor demands are high lowering the supply of labor you have to do things to be competitive...like raise wages to attract talent.

Funny how that works.