Like 2014? Maybe. Maybe not.
Just like last year, A&M and Arkansas started off the SEC schedule by knocking the crap out of each other. Like last year, Arkansas had the better of things for three quarters, then wore down (and screwed up) while A&M didn't, as they ended up turning the tide and winning the game.
Of course, we remember what happened after last year's overtime win: A&M went into Starkville and got destroyed, starting a tailspin that would last at least a month and wrecked a promising start to a season.
So, is another bloodying by Arkansas a precursor to disaster with State up next? It doesn't look like it, and that has as much to do with the Bulldogs as it does with the Ags. Like last year, there are some real concerns about defensive depth, though this time it's with the linebackers instead of the defensive line. Otaro Alaka was hurt again Saturday night and his status is up in the air. If I had to guess, he's not playing this week. Shaan Washington took a heck of a beating, but he finished the game. We'll see how he is tomorrow (if they talk about injuries, which Kevin Sumlin may or may not). Josh Walker didn't play much until the late going, but he came in and played on the outside and really helped strengthen the defense in the fourth quarter. I don't remember seeing Claude George at all.
Arkansas may be the most physical team in the conference again this year; A&M doesn't beat them, A&M survives them. They don't get a lot of pressure on defense, but they're big and were pretty solid against the run. A&M didn't run the ball well last year against the Hogs either (though they were a good bit better than they were Saturday night). Their offensive front is massive, and Arkansas' first two backs ran 5.6 YPC, the same as they did last year. The big difference this time was the Aggies didn't give up any huge running plays, where they did in 2014 (remember Jonathan Williams had a 55-yard TD called back on a hold). A&M got itself in trouble with overpursuit and bad decision-making by the linebackers frequently Saturday night, but they started to control things down the stretch.
On offense, Arkansas gave A&M the pass and the Aggies took it. The line did pretty well in pass blocking, sacking Allen once on their own and then having him go down again on a complete play breakdown in the 4th quarter. Outside of that, he had plenty of time to pick the secondary apart (which he did). Most importantly, they survived without further injury. If James White and Speedy Noil return this week, the offense will be healthier than it's been at any point this season. Remember, they lost Malcome Kennedy last year and there was no replacement for him at that time.
Ok, now on to the Bulldogs. Last year MSU crushed teams with the run and then stopped it on defense. Not so this year, and that's probably the most pronounced difference from 2014. Their rushing offense is 98th in the nation, and their rushing defense is 80th. Yes, they have played LSU, but otherwise have dealt with Southern Miss, Northwestern State and a crappy Auburn team. That's a far cry from last year. This time, they're throwing the ball with Dak Prescott, who has three more completions than Kyle Allen has attempts (but less than 100 more yards). They're largely one dimensional and haven't been able to hit the big play. Against Auburn, State managed just 56 yards on 21 carries -- less total and per average than an A&M team that tossed the running game out the window pulled against Arkansas.
Dan Mullen has done a great job with State again this year, but this isn't the 2014 version. This isn't the 2014 Aggies, either. It's obvious the defense wasn't swell against Arkansas, but if they had to choose an opponent to be one-dimensional, they'd rather them be throwing. So let's see what Garrett, Hall and co. have in store this weekend.
Positives, negatives
Here's what I liked out of the Arkansas game: Kyle Allen only made one questionable decision, adapted well to schemes he hadn't seen and made the Razorbacks pay when they blitzed. A&M used the middle of the field. The pass protection was sound and probably the best it's been all year.
Here's what I didn't like: Bad redzone playcalling; linebackers playing out of position and getting beat up, exposing a lack of depth; the refusal to adjust to Brandon Allen's bootleg to the right, which became their primary source of passing offense in the second half; stupid personal foul penalties.
There's no doubt John Chavis has done good work so far with what he's got, but they've got some serious adjustments to make this week. Teams are going to run up the gut as long as the linebackers play themselves out of position. They're also going to keep rolling the pocket because they're terrified of Garrett and Hall. Those are adjustments that have got to be made pronto.
Two stats that fly under the radar:
+2: A&M finally won the turnover battle Saturday and are now even for the year. I think they were well below that after four games last season. A clean turnover slate is a big deal for this team.
22.8%: That's the third down conversion rate for opponents this season. It seemed like Arkansas was getting whatever it wanted, but they ended up 5 for 10. The Aggies are now 22nd in the nation in 3rd down conversion defense.
On par for preseason praise...maybe not now, but anyway...
A&M's defense is currently 60th in the country. I said in the offseason if they got into the 70s (a 30-place jump), it's a success. If they got to the 50s, this team competes for a playoff spot. They're right in the middle. Honestly, I see them ending closer to 70 than 50 at this point, but only a fool underestimates the Chief and a motivated defense.
9-3 seems easily (?) attainable if you win Saturday
Let's look at the schedule that remains: MSU, Bye, Alabama, @Ole Miss, South Carolina, Auburn, Western Carolina, @Vandy, @LSU.
If you beat State, and A&M is favored, that's 5-0. South Carolina is horrible. Vandy is no good. Auburn, to this point, has sucked. Western Carolina is...well, you know. That's 9 wins. Let's see how Alabama does this weekend at Georgia, because their season may tip over. Could it be 10? More? We've said it more than once -- everyone in the SEC has a weakness. The team that avoids or hides it best wins.
On Kyler
I'm a fan of the change of pace. There were people in the press box Saturday night who wanted him to play the entire second half, which I thought was a really bad idea (and thankfully, Allen proved me right), but Kyler is like a sheer shot of adrenaline that helps not only the team, but Kyle too. I'd like to see Kyler be more than a one-trick pony (in other words, let him throw some), but I like how he's been used so far. There's nothing wrong in baseball with bringing a power arm in to get a strikeout in the 7th, and that's close to what Kyler was Saturday night.
Now, having said that...
I agree with Booger McFarland. Kyle Allen's the best QB in the SEC right now.
YOU HAVE WRONGED ME! I DEMAND RECOMPENSE AND A TICKET OUT!
There. That's the best Texas fan imitation I can do. Their outrage over getting screwed by a Big 12 officiating crew is so hilarious and sad it defies comprehension. Hey, guys, got a Muppet News Flash for you: THAT'S YOUR CONFERENCE. YOU MADE IT. IT'S YOURS.
But don't tell them that. They're convinced it's Oklahoma (!) who runs the show, and put those evil refs up to doing Charlie Strong and his heroic youngsters wrong. OU...the same OU that wouldn't leave Texas to go the SEC with A&M. The same OU that didn't bitch about LHN for three years. The same OU that would dump Oklahoma State in a second to follow Texas wherever they may go. The same OU that serves as rival and political lapdog. They're running the Big 12.
Spare me. Texas got a taste of what everyone else in that conference, past and present, has gotten for 20 years. And now they want to leave the conference they designed with the sole purpose of running roughshot over it?
Give me a break and suck it up. Also, trying finding some semblance of an offense, defense or special teams before getting so rightfully indignant. You had no business being in that game, officiating or not.
SEC Power Rankings:
1. Ole Miss: Vandy gave them a run. Chinks in the armor?
2. LSU: Fournette for Heisman. (I need to shower now)
3. A&M: Hopefully Arkansas wasn't Drago this year and we're not entering Rocky 5.
4. Georgia: This is a good football team.
5. Alabama: They need this one or Nick finds himself out of the race in October.
6. Florida: Enjoy your brief stay in the top 25, fellas.
7. Kentucky: Welcome to the top half, boys.
8. Mississippi State: Dak. DAK? Wedge, I've lost my gunner. You'll have to take this shot.
9. Mizzou: Over-rated clap clap clapclapclap
10. Arkansas: Call me nuts, they're going to get better. It'll be too late, but they may threaten .500.
11. Tennessee: Teams that have led by 13 points or more are 181-3 this year. Two of the three losses belong to Tennessee.
12. Auburn: These guys stink.
13. South Carolina: They won and are now 2-2. But they struggled to beat 0-4 UCF.
14. Vandy: Signs of life? Nah.
The Bottom 10
10. Fresno State (1-3): 180 points allowed by that Nick Toth defense.
9. Vandy (1-3): They SEC? They SEC? Almost. Now outscoring their opponents. Just no offense.
8. Texas (1-3): The kick is...non-existent, because they can't get it off. BLAME THE OFFICIALS
7. The Chicago Bears: They're bad enough to sneak in here. They really are.
6. SMU (1-3): They're back. Losing to James Madison is humiliating.
5. Kansas (0-3): Didn't lose! Didn't play.
4. North Texas (0-3): Outscored 151-38 so far.
3. UMass (0-3): Yeah, you got crushed by Notre Dame. It happens.
2. Wyoming (0-4): Well, at least they're not...
1. UTSA (0-4): I thought they'd be better than this. Or someone.
Just like last year, A&M and Arkansas started off the SEC schedule by knocking the crap out of each other. Like last year, Arkansas had the better of things for three quarters, then wore down (and screwed up) while A&M didn't, as they ended up turning the tide and winning the game.
Of course, we remember what happened after last year's overtime win: A&M went into Starkville and got destroyed, starting a tailspin that would last at least a month and wrecked a promising start to a season.
So, is another bloodying by Arkansas a precursor to disaster with State up next? It doesn't look like it, and that has as much to do with the Bulldogs as it does with the Ags. Like last year, there are some real concerns about defensive depth, though this time it's with the linebackers instead of the defensive line. Otaro Alaka was hurt again Saturday night and his status is up in the air. If I had to guess, he's not playing this week. Shaan Washington took a heck of a beating, but he finished the game. We'll see how he is tomorrow (if they talk about injuries, which Kevin Sumlin may or may not). Josh Walker didn't play much until the late going, but he came in and played on the outside and really helped strengthen the defense in the fourth quarter. I don't remember seeing Claude George at all.
Arkansas may be the most physical team in the conference again this year; A&M doesn't beat them, A&M survives them. They don't get a lot of pressure on defense, but they're big and were pretty solid against the run. A&M didn't run the ball well last year against the Hogs either (though they were a good bit better than they were Saturday night). Their offensive front is massive, and Arkansas' first two backs ran 5.6 YPC, the same as they did last year. The big difference this time was the Aggies didn't give up any huge running plays, where they did in 2014 (remember Jonathan Williams had a 55-yard TD called back on a hold). A&M got itself in trouble with overpursuit and bad decision-making by the linebackers frequently Saturday night, but they started to control things down the stretch.
On offense, Arkansas gave A&M the pass and the Aggies took it. The line did pretty well in pass blocking, sacking Allen once on their own and then having him go down again on a complete play breakdown in the 4th quarter. Outside of that, he had plenty of time to pick the secondary apart (which he did). Most importantly, they survived without further injury. If James White and Speedy Noil return this week, the offense will be healthier than it's been at any point this season. Remember, they lost Malcome Kennedy last year and there was no replacement for him at that time.
Ok, now on to the Bulldogs. Last year MSU crushed teams with the run and then stopped it on defense. Not so this year, and that's probably the most pronounced difference from 2014. Their rushing offense is 98th in the nation, and their rushing defense is 80th. Yes, they have played LSU, but otherwise have dealt with Southern Miss, Northwestern State and a crappy Auburn team. That's a far cry from last year. This time, they're throwing the ball with Dak Prescott, who has three more completions than Kyle Allen has attempts (but less than 100 more yards). They're largely one dimensional and haven't been able to hit the big play. Against Auburn, State managed just 56 yards on 21 carries -- less total and per average than an A&M team that tossed the running game out the window pulled against Arkansas.
Dan Mullen has done a great job with State again this year, but this isn't the 2014 version. This isn't the 2014 Aggies, either. It's obvious the defense wasn't swell against Arkansas, but if they had to choose an opponent to be one-dimensional, they'd rather them be throwing. So let's see what Garrett, Hall and co. have in store this weekend.
Positives, negatives
Here's what I liked out of the Arkansas game: Kyle Allen only made one questionable decision, adapted well to schemes he hadn't seen and made the Razorbacks pay when they blitzed. A&M used the middle of the field. The pass protection was sound and probably the best it's been all year.
Here's what I didn't like: Bad redzone playcalling; linebackers playing out of position and getting beat up, exposing a lack of depth; the refusal to adjust to Brandon Allen's bootleg to the right, which became their primary source of passing offense in the second half; stupid personal foul penalties.
There's no doubt John Chavis has done good work so far with what he's got, but they've got some serious adjustments to make this week. Teams are going to run up the gut as long as the linebackers play themselves out of position. They're also going to keep rolling the pocket because they're terrified of Garrett and Hall. Those are adjustments that have got to be made pronto.
Two stats that fly under the radar:
+2: A&M finally won the turnover battle Saturday and are now even for the year. I think they were well below that after four games last season. A clean turnover slate is a big deal for this team.
22.8%: That's the third down conversion rate for opponents this season. It seemed like Arkansas was getting whatever it wanted, but they ended up 5 for 10. The Aggies are now 22nd in the nation in 3rd down conversion defense.
On par for preseason praise...maybe not now, but anyway...
A&M's defense is currently 60th in the country. I said in the offseason if they got into the 70s (a 30-place jump), it's a success. If they got to the 50s, this team competes for a playoff spot. They're right in the middle. Honestly, I see them ending closer to 70 than 50 at this point, but only a fool underestimates the Chief and a motivated defense.
9-3 seems easily (?) attainable if you win Saturday
Let's look at the schedule that remains: MSU, Bye, Alabama, @Ole Miss, South Carolina, Auburn, Western Carolina, @Vandy, @LSU.
If you beat State, and A&M is favored, that's 5-0. South Carolina is horrible. Vandy is no good. Auburn, to this point, has sucked. Western Carolina is...well, you know. That's 9 wins. Let's see how Alabama does this weekend at Georgia, because their season may tip over. Could it be 10? More? We've said it more than once -- everyone in the SEC has a weakness. The team that avoids or hides it best wins.
On Kyler
I'm a fan of the change of pace. There were people in the press box Saturday night who wanted him to play the entire second half, which I thought was a really bad idea (and thankfully, Allen proved me right), but Kyler is like a sheer shot of adrenaline that helps not only the team, but Kyle too. I'd like to see Kyler be more than a one-trick pony (in other words, let him throw some), but I like how he's been used so far. There's nothing wrong in baseball with bringing a power arm in to get a strikeout in the 7th, and that's close to what Kyler was Saturday night.
Now, having said that...
I agree with Booger McFarland. Kyle Allen's the best QB in the SEC right now.
YOU HAVE WRONGED ME! I DEMAND RECOMPENSE AND A TICKET OUT!
There. That's the best Texas fan imitation I can do. Their outrage over getting screwed by a Big 12 officiating crew is so hilarious and sad it defies comprehension. Hey, guys, got a Muppet News Flash for you: THAT'S YOUR CONFERENCE. YOU MADE IT. IT'S YOURS.
But don't tell them that. They're convinced it's Oklahoma (!) who runs the show, and put those evil refs up to doing Charlie Strong and his heroic youngsters wrong. OU...the same OU that wouldn't leave Texas to go the SEC with A&M. The same OU that didn't bitch about LHN for three years. The same OU that would dump Oklahoma State in a second to follow Texas wherever they may go. The same OU that serves as rival and political lapdog. They're running the Big 12.
Spare me. Texas got a taste of what everyone else in that conference, past and present, has gotten for 20 years. And now they want to leave the conference they designed with the sole purpose of running roughshot over it?
Give me a break and suck it up. Also, trying finding some semblance of an offense, defense or special teams before getting so rightfully indignant. You had no business being in that game, officiating or not.
SEC Power Rankings:
1. Ole Miss: Vandy gave them a run. Chinks in the armor?
2. LSU: Fournette for Heisman. (I need to shower now)
3. A&M: Hopefully Arkansas wasn't Drago this year and we're not entering Rocky 5.
4. Georgia: This is a good football team.
5. Alabama: They need this one or Nick finds himself out of the race in October.
6. Florida: Enjoy your brief stay in the top 25, fellas.
7. Kentucky: Welcome to the top half, boys.
8. Mississippi State: Dak. DAK? Wedge, I've lost my gunner. You'll have to take this shot.
9. Mizzou: Over-rated clap clap clapclapclap
10. Arkansas: Call me nuts, they're going to get better. It'll be too late, but they may threaten .500.
11. Tennessee: Teams that have led by 13 points or more are 181-3 this year. Two of the three losses belong to Tennessee.
12. Auburn: These guys stink.
13. South Carolina: They won and are now 2-2. But they struggled to beat 0-4 UCF.
14. Vandy: Signs of life? Nah.
The Bottom 10
10. Fresno State (1-3): 180 points allowed by that Nick Toth defense.
9. Vandy (1-3): They SEC? They SEC? Almost. Now outscoring their opponents. Just no offense.
8. Texas (1-3): The kick is...non-existent, because they can't get it off. BLAME THE OFFICIALS
7. The Chicago Bears: They're bad enough to sneak in here. They really are.
6. SMU (1-3): They're back. Losing to James Madison is humiliating.
5. Kansas (0-3): Didn't lose! Didn't play.
4. North Texas (0-3): Outscored 151-38 so far.
3. UMass (0-3): Yeah, you got crushed by Notre Dame. It happens.
2. Wyoming (0-4): Well, at least they're not...
1. UTSA (0-4): I thought they'd be better than this. Or someone.
