Figured I'd get these out there, since I never really went to sleep last night...
Yesterday was a weird day on the expansion front. Texas and OU are pushing the narrative that this is inevitable and coming soon, but neither may be the case.
First, let's look at it from the perspective of A&M and the teams already in the SEC.
Some of you have had the idea that Texas has already canvassed the university presidents and knows it's got the 11 votes it needs. That is not accurate. How do I know it's not? Because A&M AD Ross Bjork was talking to reporters Wednesday about the breaking story when he got a phone call -- from A&M president Kathleen Banks. Dr. Banks wanted to know what in the flying F was going on, because clearly nobody had told her about it. "Blindsided" was the word used by multiple universities when the matter was discussed. This thing had been kept very quiet.
We have been told that the first contact between OU and Texas and the SEC came on July 9 through legal representatives. It went directly to the league office and commissioner Greg Sankey, not any single university. Sankey, of course, was very much for the idea. Still, we're told that someone in the conference -- and maybe Sankey himself -- decided to leak the info as a bit of a trial balloon. The backlash ended up being more than was expected, and not just from A&M. But we were told -- and I thought this interesting -- that the SEC did not want A&M to feel like it was being kept in the dark. I think, to an extent, A&M still feels that way, but the SEC has been making efforts to let A&M know that nothing's going to happen without consultation. Not sure that will change a thing, but there's that. The conference is insisting now (Friday) that it has kept ALL universities in the loop during the process, so take that for what you will.
There's been a lot of talk about the "veto" that SEC teams could have on issues like this, and former president Loftin mentioned it again yesterday with ESPN. I was told by a high-ranking official that A&M certainly intends to see if that that agreement died with Mike Slive, because right now they would "pound the veto button".
One thing the SEC may do in order to keep A&M at least a little less angry would be to go to the pod system that was suggested on SEC This Morning yesterday. That's really a possibility. In this arrangement, there would be four four-team groups that would play each other every year and the rest of the schedule would be designed around it. Texas, OU, Arkansas and Mizzou would be in one pod, so the theory goes, while A&M, LSU, Mississippi State and Ole Miss would be in another. I've also heard the idea of Texas joining the West and OU joining the East, but I'm not sure how that would really work.
Net result of the "WTF!?!" reaction to the news: we're told Sankey is pumping the breaks on this thing a little bit. That doesn't mean it won't happen, but there is some serious internal politicking that needs to be done to get it to work.
The status of Missouri on this thing is a question mark. On Wednesday I (and others) was told that Mizzou is a 100% no -- subject to negotiations, of course. I was told yesterday by someone close to the Mizzou program that that may not be true, that the Tigers REALLY hate the idea but they'll play ball with the conference. Arkansas isn't talking. LSU isn't talking. But if Sankey really is slowing things down, that's a sign (IMO) that the conference does not have the unanimity it wants. And, let's be honest, with A&M it may never get it. At this point, I'm not sure they have the votes to get approval. Could they get them? Yeah, absolutely. But schools want a lot more information.
A few other things: LHN must die for Texas to gain admission. That's obvious and Texas has allegedly swallowed their pride and will work with ESPN to fold it.
Now, from the outsider viewpoint.
All 10 teams were invited to the Big 12 teleconference last night and OU and Texas didn't join. To be clear, the Big 12 is going to die in 2025; it's just a matter of where teams go and when. That's not really news. I've been saying that for at least seven years and I'm not some clairvoyant.
Shock of shocks, this is about money and visibility. Texas, especially, feels like it's significantly overshadowed by the SEC and A&M and particular under the current conference structure. They want out, they want their airtime and I'm told it's they who are pushing the inevitability and this happens soon angle. Leaking stuff that is pro-Texas and anti-A&M to Pete Thamel is par for their course.
But that's neither here nor there, save for me editorializing and saying Thamel should not be taken seriously, no matter how seriously he takes himself. But let's get back to it.
The odds of this taking place quickly seem to be diminishing rapidly. On one side, you have a lot of programs saying, "Hey, this is a big deal and we need more info" and at least saying "NOPE." On the other side, you have eight teams that are acting like they can stop the breakup if they can just change a little bit more.
In this case, the breakup won't come cheap. According to Big 12 by-laws, any withdrawing member has to give at least 18 months notice. There's also what's called a "commitment buyout fee" -- ironic naming -- which means the conference is to be paid the sum of the distributions of the last two years of its membership. In other words, the last two years of conference payouts. Last year, that sum was $38 million in the Big 12. Without some kind of deal, OU and Texas would have to shell out $76 million to leave. Not only that, the instant they say, "We out", Big 12 bylaws say that the schools leaving will "have agreed to forfeit all distributions of any type" from that day until the day they leave.
Then there's the grant of rights deal. The Big 12 controls that for OU and Texas football and men's basketball until June 30, 2025. This could be a considerable hurdle to overcome. If Texas and OU want to get out before 2025, they will likely have to buy out their rights, which will cost even more money. There's also the Fox contract that runs through 2025 and, considering Fox has no SEC rights, they would almost certainly get involved legally because without OU and Texas, their (already crappy) deal with the Big 12 will be essentially worthless.
So the Big 12 teams talked last night and their solution to keeping OU and Texas was what it was in 2011: make things even less equal and pay those two more money if that's what they want. The other schools really don't have a choice, because if the Big 12 collapses, a lot of these schools are at risk of falling out of the Power 5 entirely.
Back to leaks. Texas and the Big 12 are pointing fingers at each other, claiming the other leaked the idea of the Texas-OU defection to A&M. I know, that sounds weird. The Big 12 believes that members of the Texas Board of Regents couldn't keep their mouths shut and boasted about it to someone, who promptly told A&M. Texas is blaming the three schools with the most to lose -- Tech, Baylor and TCU.
But wait, didn't I say someone in the SEC told A&M? Yes. It's very possible this came from multiple directions, as rumors often do.
Tech, TCU and Baylor are going to fight this thing tooth and nail. Their survival as Power 5 schools may depend on it. The chancellor of the Tech system has already ripped Texas and OU on social media and a Baylor alum is drafting legislation that would prevent Texas from leaving the Big 12 without legislative approval. This went nowhere in 2011, but that was then. We'll see if anything has changed.
If this seems like a rambling train of thought, I apologize. But it is. I wanted to get all of this out as quickly as possible. But here's the "Too Long, Didn't Read" version:
So there we are in terms of where things stand on Friday morning. Let's see where things are Friday afternoon or Monday.
Yesterday was a weird day on the expansion front. Texas and OU are pushing the narrative that this is inevitable and coming soon, but neither may be the case.
First, let's look at it from the perspective of A&M and the teams already in the SEC.
Some of you have had the idea that Texas has already canvassed the university presidents and knows it's got the 11 votes it needs. That is not accurate. How do I know it's not? Because A&M AD Ross Bjork was talking to reporters Wednesday about the breaking story when he got a phone call -- from A&M president Kathleen Banks. Dr. Banks wanted to know what in the flying F was going on, because clearly nobody had told her about it. "Blindsided" was the word used by multiple universities when the matter was discussed. This thing had been kept very quiet.
We have been told that the first contact between OU and Texas and the SEC came on July 9 through legal representatives. It went directly to the league office and commissioner Greg Sankey, not any single university. Sankey, of course, was very much for the idea. Still, we're told that someone in the conference -- and maybe Sankey himself -- decided to leak the info as a bit of a trial balloon. The backlash ended up being more than was expected, and not just from A&M. But we were told -- and I thought this interesting -- that the SEC did not want A&M to feel like it was being kept in the dark. I think, to an extent, A&M still feels that way, but the SEC has been making efforts to let A&M know that nothing's going to happen without consultation. Not sure that will change a thing, but there's that. The conference is insisting now (Friday) that it has kept ALL universities in the loop during the process, so take that for what you will.
There's been a lot of talk about the "veto" that SEC teams could have on issues like this, and former president Loftin mentioned it again yesterday with ESPN. I was told by a high-ranking official that A&M certainly intends to see if that that agreement died with Mike Slive, because right now they would "pound the veto button".
One thing the SEC may do in order to keep A&M at least a little less angry would be to go to the pod system that was suggested on SEC This Morning yesterday. That's really a possibility. In this arrangement, there would be four four-team groups that would play each other every year and the rest of the schedule would be designed around it. Texas, OU, Arkansas and Mizzou would be in one pod, so the theory goes, while A&M, LSU, Mississippi State and Ole Miss would be in another. I've also heard the idea of Texas joining the West and OU joining the East, but I'm not sure how that would really work.
Net result of the "WTF!?!" reaction to the news: we're told Sankey is pumping the breaks on this thing a little bit. That doesn't mean it won't happen, but there is some serious internal politicking that needs to be done to get it to work.
The status of Missouri on this thing is a question mark. On Wednesday I (and others) was told that Mizzou is a 100% no -- subject to negotiations, of course. I was told yesterday by someone close to the Mizzou program that that may not be true, that the Tigers REALLY hate the idea but they'll play ball with the conference. Arkansas isn't talking. LSU isn't talking. But if Sankey really is slowing things down, that's a sign (IMO) that the conference does not have the unanimity it wants. And, let's be honest, with A&M it may never get it. At this point, I'm not sure they have the votes to get approval. Could they get them? Yeah, absolutely. But schools want a lot more information.
A few other things: LHN must die for Texas to gain admission. That's obvious and Texas has allegedly swallowed their pride and will work with ESPN to fold it.
Now, from the outsider viewpoint.
All 10 teams were invited to the Big 12 teleconference last night and OU and Texas didn't join. To be clear, the Big 12 is going to die in 2025; it's just a matter of where teams go and when. That's not really news. I've been saying that for at least seven years and I'm not some clairvoyant.
Shock of shocks, this is about money and visibility. Texas, especially, feels like it's significantly overshadowed by the SEC and A&M and particular under the current conference structure. They want out, they want their airtime and I'm told it's they who are pushing the inevitability and this happens soon angle. Leaking stuff that is pro-Texas and anti-A&M to Pete Thamel is par for their course.
But that's neither here nor there, save for me editorializing and saying Thamel should not be taken seriously, no matter how seriously he takes himself. But let's get back to it.
The odds of this taking place quickly seem to be diminishing rapidly. On one side, you have a lot of programs saying, "Hey, this is a big deal and we need more info" and at least saying "NOPE." On the other side, you have eight teams that are acting like they can stop the breakup if they can just change a little bit more.
In this case, the breakup won't come cheap. According to Big 12 by-laws, any withdrawing member has to give at least 18 months notice. There's also what's called a "commitment buyout fee" -- ironic naming -- which means the conference is to be paid the sum of the distributions of the last two years of its membership. In other words, the last two years of conference payouts. Last year, that sum was $38 million in the Big 12. Without some kind of deal, OU and Texas would have to shell out $76 million to leave. Not only that, the instant they say, "We out", Big 12 bylaws say that the schools leaving will "have agreed to forfeit all distributions of any type" from that day until the day they leave.
Then there's the grant of rights deal. The Big 12 controls that for OU and Texas football and men's basketball until June 30, 2025. This could be a considerable hurdle to overcome. If Texas and OU want to get out before 2025, they will likely have to buy out their rights, which will cost even more money. There's also the Fox contract that runs through 2025 and, considering Fox has no SEC rights, they would almost certainly get involved legally because without OU and Texas, their (already crappy) deal with the Big 12 will be essentially worthless.
So the Big 12 teams talked last night and their solution to keeping OU and Texas was what it was in 2011: make things even less equal and pay those two more money if that's what they want. The other schools really don't have a choice, because if the Big 12 collapses, a lot of these schools are at risk of falling out of the Power 5 entirely.
Back to leaks. Texas and the Big 12 are pointing fingers at each other, claiming the other leaked the idea of the Texas-OU defection to A&M. I know, that sounds weird. The Big 12 believes that members of the Texas Board of Regents couldn't keep their mouths shut and boasted about it to someone, who promptly told A&M. Texas is blaming the three schools with the most to lose -- Tech, Baylor and TCU.
But wait, didn't I say someone in the SEC told A&M? Yes. It's very possible this came from multiple directions, as rumors often do.
Tech, TCU and Baylor are going to fight this thing tooth and nail. Their survival as Power 5 schools may depend on it. The chancellor of the Tech system has already ripped Texas and OU on social media and a Baylor alum is drafting legislation that would prevent Texas from leaving the Big 12 without legislative approval. This went nowhere in 2011, but that was then. We'll see if anything has changed.
If this seems like a rambling train of thought, I apologize. But it is. I wanted to get all of this out as quickly as possible. But here's the "Too Long, Didn't Read" version:
- A&M remains opposed.
- First contact was made July 9.
- The conference (not the universities) like the idea of adding Texas and OU. Member universities are more skeptical.
- The SEC apparently wanted to gauge reaction AND keep A&M in the loop so the info leaked. The reaction seems to have been stronger than commissioner Sankey anticipated.
- A&M is likely to see if the "gentleman's agreement" on the Veto will hold without Mike Slive. Don't count on it.
- The SEC will look to work with A&M to find a satisfactory arrangement. That may not happen, but A&M isn't going to leave the SEC. That's silliness.
- Texas is pushing this the hardest and they're the ones making this look like it's inevitable and will be done swiftly. It may not, and probably will not, be.
- There are significant financial obstacles OU and Texas will have to overcome to leave, making 2023 look like the earliest a departure will occur.
- The Big 12 thinks they can salvage this by shelling out more money.
- Tech, TCU and Baylor are ready to fight like hell.
So there we are in terms of where things stand on Friday morning. Let's see where things are Friday afternoon or Monday.
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