In an era where teams are averaging close to 50 points and 500 yards per game, it's clear offenses have the upper hand in today's game. Which college football offense will be the best in 2015?
Using ESPN's Football Power Index(FPI) -- which is broken down into predicted offense, defense and special teams components -- we will project the top offenses for the 2015 season. These rankings are based purely on statistical projections that account for previous years' efficiencies (most recent year counting most); returning starters (special consideration given to a team returning its quarterback or adding a graduate transfer quarterback); four-year average recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.
It's important to note FPI is not projecting total yards or points; it's projecting a team's expected points added (EPA) per game. Unlike yards, which treat all situations equally, EPA accounts for the context of a play and its impact on a team's potential points. Teams with the highest offensive EPA per game in a season will be efficient units that convert yards to points, avoid turnovers, control field position and move the ball. The number associated with EPA per game below refers to the points per game an offense is expected to contribute to its net scoring margin against an average defense, with an average offense expected to contribute zero net points.
Let's run through the list.
1. Baylor Bears
Predicted offensive EPA per game: plus 16.6
Returning starters: Nine
2014 offensive efficiency rank:Fourth
Coach Art Briles has built an offensive powerhouse in Waco.
For a second straight season in 2014, the Bears led the nation in points, yards and offensive touchdowns per game. But teams can compile eye-popping numbers without running a hyper-efficient offense. That's not the case for Baylor. The Bears have ranked in the top four in offensive efficiency -- a measure of per play, opponent adjusted productivity -- for four straight seasons, tied with Oregon for the longest active streak in the nation. What makes the streak even more impressive is the Bears have had three starting quarterbacks in that time (Robert Griffin III, Nick Florence and Bryce Petty) and never missed a beat.
Should 2015 be any different? With Seth Russell at the helm, Baylor may be even more efficient than last season because of his dual-threat capabilities. The Bears could have the deepest set of wide receivers in the nation with two 1,000-yards receivers -- Corey Colemanand KD Cannon -- along with Jay Leereturning. Add in the preseason first-team All-Big 12 running back Shock Linwood and all five offensive line starters from last season, and Baylor's zone-read should be running to perfection.
2. Texas A&M Aggies
Predicted offensive EPA per game: plus 14.6
Returning starters: Eight (including QB)
2014 offensive efficiency rank: Ninth
Last season was considered a down year for Texas A&M's offense, yet the Aggies ranked ninth in offensive efficiency, the fifth time in the last six seasons coach Kevin Sumlin's teams ranked in the top 10 in that category.
Sumlin's track record of success, particularly when it comes to molding young quarterbacks, is a major reason why FPI rates Texas A&M's offense so high entering the 2015 season. Additionally, with eight returning starters, including QB Kyle Allen, and three straight top 12 recruiting classes, the case can be made Texas A&M has more, young offensive talent on its roster than any other team in the nation. In addition to quarterbacks Allen (top pocket passer in 2014) and Kyler Murray (top dual-threat QB in 2015), the Aggies have a number of highly ranked wide receivers such as Ricky Seals-Jones, Speedy Noil and Christian Kirk.
Last season, Texas A&M was constantly playing from behind, which did not allow Sumlin to get his running game going (the Aggies ran on an SEC-low 42 percent of plays). With Tra Carsonhealthy and an improved defense under new defensive coordinator John Chavis, expect Texas A&M to return to about a 50-50 run-pass ratio, which was the level when it was the most efficient offense in the nation in 2012.
Using ESPN's Football Power Index(FPI) -- which is broken down into predicted offense, defense and special teams components -- we will project the top offenses for the 2015 season. These rankings are based purely on statistical projections that account for previous years' efficiencies (most recent year counting most); returning starters (special consideration given to a team returning its quarterback or adding a graduate transfer quarterback); four-year average recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.
It's important to note FPI is not projecting total yards or points; it's projecting a team's expected points added (EPA) per game. Unlike yards, which treat all situations equally, EPA accounts for the context of a play and its impact on a team's potential points. Teams with the highest offensive EPA per game in a season will be efficient units that convert yards to points, avoid turnovers, control field position and move the ball. The number associated with EPA per game below refers to the points per game an offense is expected to contribute to its net scoring margin against an average defense, with an average offense expected to contribute zero net points.
Let's run through the list.
1. Baylor Bears
Predicted offensive EPA per game: plus 16.6
Returning starters: Nine
2014 offensive efficiency rank:Fourth
Coach Art Briles has built an offensive powerhouse in Waco.
For a second straight season in 2014, the Bears led the nation in points, yards and offensive touchdowns per game. But teams can compile eye-popping numbers without running a hyper-efficient offense. That's not the case for Baylor. The Bears have ranked in the top four in offensive efficiency -- a measure of per play, opponent adjusted productivity -- for four straight seasons, tied with Oregon for the longest active streak in the nation. What makes the streak even more impressive is the Bears have had three starting quarterbacks in that time (Robert Griffin III, Nick Florence and Bryce Petty) and never missed a beat.
Should 2015 be any different? With Seth Russell at the helm, Baylor may be even more efficient than last season because of his dual-threat capabilities. The Bears could have the deepest set of wide receivers in the nation with two 1,000-yards receivers -- Corey Colemanand KD Cannon -- along with Jay Leereturning. Add in the preseason first-team All-Big 12 running back Shock Linwood and all five offensive line starters from last season, and Baylor's zone-read should be running to perfection.
2. Texas A&M Aggies
Predicted offensive EPA per game: plus 14.6
Returning starters: Eight (including QB)
2014 offensive efficiency rank: Ninth
Last season was considered a down year for Texas A&M's offense, yet the Aggies ranked ninth in offensive efficiency, the fifth time in the last six seasons coach Kevin Sumlin's teams ranked in the top 10 in that category.
Sumlin's track record of success, particularly when it comes to molding young quarterbacks, is a major reason why FPI rates Texas A&M's offense so high entering the 2015 season. Additionally, with eight returning starters, including QB Kyle Allen, and three straight top 12 recruiting classes, the case can be made Texas A&M has more, young offensive talent on its roster than any other team in the nation. In addition to quarterbacks Allen (top pocket passer in 2014) and Kyler Murray (top dual-threat QB in 2015), the Aggies have a number of highly ranked wide receivers such as Ricky Seals-Jones, Speedy Noil and Christian Kirk.
Last season, Texas A&M was constantly playing from behind, which did not allow Sumlin to get his running game going (the Aggies ran on an SEC-low 42 percent of plays). With Tra Carsonhealthy and an improved defense under new defensive coordinator John Chavis, expect Texas A&M to return to about a 50-50 run-pass ratio, which was the level when it was the most efficient offense in the nation in 2012.
