It's probably been mentioned that we are #6 in their FPI, the only Top 20 team not to be ranked in the AP Poll.
Pretty interesting that according to their index we have almost as good a chance of beating ASU as OSU does at Va Tech and Bama does at Wisconsin, two games with 10+ point spreads.
GAMES OF THE WEEK
Ohio State at Virginia Tech
Pregame matchup quality: 90.6
• Ohio State: 80% chance to win (+11.7 predicted point differential)
• Matchup to watch: Ohio State predicted to have third-best offense and Virginia Tech predicted to have third-best defense, according to FPI's projections
Texas A&M vs. Arizona State
Pregame matchup quality: 86.6
• Texas A&M: 77% chance to win (+10.3 predicted point differential)
• Texas A&M: Sixth in preseason FPI, the only team in the FPI Top 20 not ranked in the AP Poll
Alabama vs. Wisconsin
Pregame matchup quality: 82.5
• Alabama: 80% chance to win (+11.8 predicted point differential)
• Alabama: First of FBS-high nine games against FPI Top 40 opponents
Texas at Notre Dame
Pregame matchup quality: 81.4
• Notre Dame: 71% chance to win (+7.4 predicted point differential)
• Texas: Expected to play fifth-hardest schedule in the nation
TCU at Minnesota
Pregame matchup quality: 80.4
• TCU: 89% chance to win (+17.7 predicted point differential)
• TCU: One of three teams projected to have a top-10 offense and defense this season (Ohio State and LSU)
Sharon Katz: Coming off a 10-3 season, Arizona State is a trendy pick to win the Pac-12. According to Travis Haney, the Sun Devils have the top breakout candidate in the nation, quarterback Mike Bercovici; they also have nine returning starters on defense. Why, then, does ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) give Arizona State only a 26 percent chance to beat Texas A&M on Saturday night? FPI's projections are more a testament to the faith it has in Texas A&M than an indictment of Arizona State. After three straight top 12 recruiting classes, the Aggies are loaded with talent, particularly on offense. FPI expects Texas A&M to have one of the top five offenses in the nation -- one that is projected to be about 10 points per game stronger than Arizona State's. Although the Sun Devils have the edge on defense, FPI does not believe it will be enough to make up for the offensive disparity. Finally, FPI accounts for distance traveled in its projections, and although the game is technically at a neutral site (NRG Stadium in Houston), Texas A&M is traveling 900 fewer miles (worth about one point, all else being equal) and essentially will be playing another home game.
Mark Schlabach: I'd like to tell Sharon to recheck the wires on her FPI machine, but I can't forget that she recently told me FPI correctly picked 75 percent of the straight-up winners in games last season. She said it was higher than any system used in Las Vegas in 2014. That said, I don't think there's any way Texas A&M should be a nine-point favorite versus Arizona State, especially when Saturday night's game is being played on a (somewhat) neutral field in Houston. It's not as if the Sun Devils are playing with Texas' offense. Bercovici, their new quarterback, started three games in 2014 after Taylor Kelly was hurt. In three straight contests against UCLA, USC and Stanford, Bercovici passed for more than 1,200 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions, completing better than 60 percent of his passes in every game. Have you watched Texas A&M's defense the past few seasons? It's not as if the Aggies are better than those Pac-12 teams.
Pretty interesting that according to their index we have almost as good a chance of beating ASU as OSU does at Va Tech and Bama does at Wisconsin, two games with 10+ point spreads.
GAMES OF THE WEEK
Ohio State at Virginia Tech
Pregame matchup quality: 90.6
• Ohio State: 80% chance to win (+11.7 predicted point differential)
• Matchup to watch: Ohio State predicted to have third-best offense and Virginia Tech predicted to have third-best defense, according to FPI's projections
Texas A&M vs. Arizona State
Pregame matchup quality: 86.6
• Texas A&M: 77% chance to win (+10.3 predicted point differential)
• Texas A&M: Sixth in preseason FPI, the only team in the FPI Top 20 not ranked in the AP Poll
Alabama vs. Wisconsin
Pregame matchup quality: 82.5
• Alabama: 80% chance to win (+11.8 predicted point differential)
• Alabama: First of FBS-high nine games against FPI Top 40 opponents
Texas at Notre Dame
Pregame matchup quality: 81.4
• Notre Dame: 71% chance to win (+7.4 predicted point differential)
• Texas: Expected to play fifth-hardest schedule in the nation
TCU at Minnesota
Pregame matchup quality: 80.4
• TCU: 89% chance to win (+17.7 predicted point differential)
• TCU: One of three teams projected to have a top-10 offense and defense this season (Ohio State and LSU)
Sharon Katz: Coming off a 10-3 season, Arizona State is a trendy pick to win the Pac-12. According to Travis Haney, the Sun Devils have the top breakout candidate in the nation, quarterback Mike Bercovici; they also have nine returning starters on defense. Why, then, does ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) give Arizona State only a 26 percent chance to beat Texas A&M on Saturday night? FPI's projections are more a testament to the faith it has in Texas A&M than an indictment of Arizona State. After three straight top 12 recruiting classes, the Aggies are loaded with talent, particularly on offense. FPI expects Texas A&M to have one of the top five offenses in the nation -- one that is projected to be about 10 points per game stronger than Arizona State's. Although the Sun Devils have the edge on defense, FPI does not believe it will be enough to make up for the offensive disparity. Finally, FPI accounts for distance traveled in its projections, and although the game is technically at a neutral site (NRG Stadium in Houston), Texas A&M is traveling 900 fewer miles (worth about one point, all else being equal) and essentially will be playing another home game.
Mark Schlabach: I'd like to tell Sharon to recheck the wires on her FPI machine, but I can't forget that she recently told me FPI correctly picked 75 percent of the straight-up winners in games last season. She said it was higher than any system used in Las Vegas in 2014. That said, I don't think there's any way Texas A&M should be a nine-point favorite versus Arizona State, especially when Saturday night's game is being played on a (somewhat) neutral field in Houston. It's not as if the Sun Devils are playing with Texas' offense. Bercovici, their new quarterback, started three games in 2014 after Taylor Kelly was hurt. In three straight contests against UCLA, USC and Stanford, Bercovici passed for more than 1,200 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions, completing better than 60 percent of his passes in every game. Have you watched Texas A&M's defense the past few seasons? It's not as if the Aggies are better than those Pac-12 teams.
